Decision-making advice from a poker player

Annie Duke is a former professional poker player who writes books about making good decisions in the face of incomplete data – lessons she learned in poker.

My favorite is her advice to reduce political bias: Think in terms of bets. Rather than saying, “This decision is awful,” say “I’m 99% convinced this decision is awful.” It’s hard to do, but that extra 1% gives protection against cognitive dissonance.

What good poker players and good decision-makers have in common is their comfort with the world being an uncertain and unpredictable place. They understand that they can almost never know exactly how something will turn out. They embrace that uncertainty and, instead of focusing on being sure, they try to figure out how unsure they are, making their best guess at the chances that different outcomes will occur. The accuracy of those guesses will depend on how much information they have and how experienced they are at making such guesses.

More here, and the book is worth reading if you’re interested in improving decision-making and protecting yourself against rigid thinking.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: