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Tag: predictions
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James Miller on X: “Massive real money bet on Kalshi that US will confirm that aliens exist before 2027. Bet was 20 min ago for hundreds of thousands of dollars. Wonder if was someone with inside info in Trump administration. Market now at 37.7% for yes with 8 million volume.” / X — Read on…
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You could put higher consumption taxes on items the wealthy purchase to a disproportionate degree. Paintings and yachts, and so on. Tom Holden argues: “In a world in which capital is essentially the only input to production, taxing capital reduces the growth rate of the economy. Whereas at present capital taxes have only level effects.…
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As Scott Adams says, our brains were not built to understand reality, our brains evolved for reproduction. Human brains don’t innately understand statistics and are designed for storytelling. People with widely different views (a Catholic and a Buddhist, say) can hang out together with no problem. In short, we don’t have a strong model on…
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