Basement Whatever

Overall the results are mixed (76% average recovery post pandemic) with better results in entertainment areas like Las Vegas and worst results in areas reliant on office workers, particularly workers who can work remote.

Transit ridership is also down (<60% of 2019 levels in major downtowns like Chicago, Philly and SF), which impacts recovery.

Best recovery is Las Vegas (103%) with Oklahoma City, Miami, and Phoenix at 90%+. The worst are San Francisco (32%), St. Louis (34%) and Portland (40%).

Downtowns in blue states have on average recovered slower (NYC – 65%, Chicago – 62%, LA – 60%, SF – 32%) than downtowns in red states (Miami – 92%, OKC – 93%, Phoenix – 89%, Las Vegas – 103%). This is due to a variety of factors – people are leaving blue states for red ones, blue states stayed shut longer, and are more reliant on office jobs, which can be remote.

The long term trends on what makes a city stay “cool” remain to be seen, although one thing is clear – you need exciting downtowns.

The key takeaway — we haven’t bounced back yet, and cities with office populations will need to do additional work. Not sure what that is in the age of the remote worker — maybe rezoning and retrofitting office buildings?

Statistics are all from Perplexity, so I’m not even sure how to cite them!