Category: Post
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The Prediction Archive is a public database of tens of thousands of world predictions. Using AI it tracks predictions over many decades and marks to market. — Read on marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/the-prediction-archive.html
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One of the best things about the DCC system of D&D is the funnel. Making the players sweat for their 1st level characters. Starting them as 0-level peasant nobodies and putting them through a meat grinder. Most will die but some will survive and go on to become actual character classes (wizards, thieves, clerics, whatever)…
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“We thought we were safe,” comments BGS gameplay engineer and union representative Anne Barrett, in an interview with The Guardian. “I mean, Bethesda Games Studios is Skyrim, it’s Fallout. We have really highly anticipated stuff coming out. We thought that the work we were doing was going to keep us safe. And instead, we got…
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Claims are cheap to make and expensive to refute. That gap is the whole engine. The Gish gallop weaponizes it: bury the other side in so many assertions that answering even half of them would burn the entire clock, then point at the unanswered pile as if silence were agreement. — Read on fallacy.is/articles/how-to-counter-gish-gallop
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The rise in the cost of travel sports is related to another typical way sophisticated investors make money by buying up entities like this, namely that they look for any places where something has been underpriced, and then raise prices to maximize cash extraction. — Read on www.aaronrenn.com/p/pay-to-play-childhood
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Despite being wrong on roughly everything, he’s not more unreasonable than someone like Buckminster Fuller, who suggested we’ll be able to send people by radio because atoms have frequencies and radio waves have frequencies so it will be possible to pick up all of our frequencies and send them by radio. — Read on danluu.com/zitron/
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Ellison isn’t overpaying $110 billion for dirt. He’s stealth buying the most undervalued industry in America while everyone else stares at the COVID wreckage and mistakes it for the whole picture. Meanwhile, the writers and actors warning you about consolidation do not live in the world. If they did, they would understand that nobody spends…
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So every time I added an agent I felt like I was buying capacity, and what I was actually doing was adding another item to my reading pile. Eleven times. That pile is where the hundred decisions live, and it is why thirty-two of them went stale. My attention was the scarce thing, and I…
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There absolutely is an audience for a tabletop skirmish game about 16th-century East Asian naval warfare. The problem was that I hadn’t spent the previous year or more required to cultivate that audience. — Read on thaumavore.substack.com/p/i-ran-an-indie-rpg-crowfund-heres
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I used to think AI productivity meant doing less. Automate the mechanical work, & human effort shrinks toward zero. The reality is stranger. AI does not shrink human effort. It raises the ceiling of what the same amount of work produces. — Read on tomtunguz.com/ai-productivity-doesnt-mean-what-i-thought/
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I’ve been watching clips of Dolly Parton and asking myself: Why do I like this? Because I don’t like country music…contemporary country music, anyway. It hits my ear like bad ‘90s rock — most of it sounds like a Matchbox 20/Third Eye Blind supergroup fronted by Larry the Cable Guy. It also turns the pandering…
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“Nobody gives a shit about you in Berlin” — Read on www.mostlyaesthetics.com/p/bowie-in-berlin-in-fragments
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A lot of spirituality and self-help talks about focusing attention on the heart, but for most Westerners, the heart is actually too close to the head to quiet mental distractions. Instead, the pelvic bowl is an endlessly rich place to rest attention, breathing the perineum into your chair and expanding that three-dimensional space like an…
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…slop is hardly a new phenomenon. Neither is the moral panic around it. AI-generated content is the latest iteration of an age-old trend: Whenever technology dramatically lowers the cost of producing media, it unleashes a flood of cheap, derivative work — and a chorus of critics convinced that culture has reached a new low. —…
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…most people’s dreams are not gated by money. Sure you need some money, but you probably don’t need as much as you might imagine. You most likely don’t need multi-million dollars to start your dream. The bottleneck for most dreams is not financial. It’s a lack of confidence, willingness to take a risk, and face…
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Like Hannibal, I wanted to rank powerful leaders in the history of warfare. Unlike Hannibal, I sought to use data to determine a general’s abilities, rather than specific accounts of generals’ achievements. The result is a system for ranking every prominent commander in military history. The Method Inspired by baseball sabermetrics, I opted to use…
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At this point you may be asking yourself, if sobriety sucks so hard, why bother? But you know damn well why! If you’re reading this right now and you’ve been through these things and you’ve been the addict, you know why. Because addiction is a lie and one that leads to a nightmare. — Read…
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AI webpage crawlers are now being served their very own ads that ordinary visitors never see, with one firm’s boss openly describing a strategy to influence what chatbots say about brands. The next time you ask Claude about where to bank, its answer may have been influenced by this bot-targeted content. — Read on www.theregister.com/ai-and-ml/2026/08/05/time-magazine-has-a-separate-version-of-its-website-with-ads-only-ai-can-see/5283640
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Humanity’s beliefs on many important topics have long been just inconsistent and incoherent across disparate fields of inquiry. Creating a huge opportunity to learn lots of big stuff fast: search for more contradictions between fields, and resolve them. (More) If you learn key consensus results from many different fields, you will often find that they…
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“I keep coming back to the Midwest because there is a relaxed contentment here that I find refreshing. The American Dream is largely working here again for both the front-row and back-row, after a rough couple of decades, at least relative to the rest of the U.S. I saw this in Michigan City, in South…
Basement Whatever 